India has set a bold near-term milestone of creating 5 million metric tonnes (MMT) of green hydrogen production capacity by 2030. However, unlocking green hydrogen demand at scale is critical to achieving this vision, a new report said on Thursday, adding that export opportunities may generate up to 1.1 MMT in green hydrogen demand.

However, without a matching push on the demand side, this potential may remain underutilised, according to the joint report by Bain & Company, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), and Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI).

The report outlines a clear pathway for how India can stimulate large-scale demand for green hydrogen and turn its vision into reality. It emphasises the importance of targeted policy interventions, strategic sector selection, and export alignment to build a robust domestic and international market for green hydrogen.

According to the report, blending green hydrogen into current industrial processes like oil refining, fertilizer production, and piped natural gas (PNG) distribution could together create up to 3 MMT of demand by 2030.

On the global front, exports of green hydrogen, ammonia, and green steel could contribute another 1.1 MMT, while public procurement of green steel for infrastructure could unlock 0.6 MMT of demand.

Blending even small percentages of green hydrogen -- 10 per cent in refining and 20 per cent in fertilisers -- could be achieved with minimal cost increases, the report noted.

As production costs continue to decline, these blend rates could be scaled up further, enabling higher demand without putting pressure on end users.

The report also highlights opportunities in niche sectors like chemicals, glass, and ceramics.

These industries already use hydrogen extensively, and small-scale substitution with green hydrogen -- especially for smaller players who pay more for grey hydrogen -- could drive additional demand of up to 0.07 MMT by 2030.

Another critical suggestion in the report is leveraging public procurement. By mandating the use of green steel in government projects such as bridges, housing, and railways, the government can act as an anchor customer and create long-term demand stability.

India’s growing strength in renewable energy and relatively low production costs also make it well-placed to tap into global demand.

The report notes that if India captures just 5–7.5 per cent of green hydrogen import needs of countries like the EU and South Korea, it could generate an additional 0.8–1.1 MMT in demand.

Exporting green steel, especially to the EU under its new carbon tax rules, could add another 0.13–0.18 MMT.

Industry leaders welcomed the report’s findings. Sumant Sinha, Chairman of the CII Energy Transition and Hydrogen Council, called it a “playbook” for translating India’s green hydrogen ambition into action.

Vineet Mittal, Co-chairman of the Council, stressed the need for long-term offtake agreements, low-cost finance, and input cost optimisation to enable widespread adoption.

Bain & Company’s Sachin Kotak added that while the supply side is already expanding rapidly, demand-side interventions like blending, public procurement, and export strategies are essential to meet the 2030 target.