India's retail inflation, based on the new Consumer Price Index (CPI) series, was recorded at 4.38 per cent in June this year compared to the same month of the previous year, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics on Monday.

The commodities that posted the highest inflation during the month were silver jewellery, which saw a 133.21 per cent jump in prices and gold jewellery, which clocked a 36.82 per cent increase in prices.

Overall food inflation in June stood at 5.32 per cent as the prices of potato plummeted by as much as (-) 20.34 per cent during the month while peas turned cheaper by (-) 9.67 per cent. However, tomato prices shot up by 31.82 per cent during the month while the cost of ginger surged by 50.41 per cent, the figures showed.

Among the other goods which turned cheaper during June were cars, which registered a 6.89 per cent decline in prices and the two-wheeler auto segment which saw a 3.49 per cent fall in prices.

The year-on-year housing inflation rate for the month stood at 2.10 per cent.

Sequentially, the inflation rate in June has moved up from 3.93 per cent in the previous month of May.

The CPI inflation is well within the RBI safe zone, which has 4 per cent as the midpoint. The tolerance zone of the RBI ranges from 2 per cent to 6 per cent. The RBI’s monetary policy aims to keep inflation within this zone as it balances its objective of promoting economic growth with stability.

The RBI has projected headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for FY27 at 5.1 per cent, up from its earlier estimate of 4.6 per cent.

The quarterly inflation trajectory for FY27 is projected as: Q1: 4.2 per cent, Q2: 5.1 per cent, Q3: 5.9 per cent, and Q4: 5.4 per cent.

These projections reflect increased risks from global supply chain disruptions and volatile commodity prices driven by geopolitical tensions in West Asia.