Last week, we all witnessed the political turmoil in Nepal. In just three years, South-Asia has witnessed three people-rising movements. In my view, political instability and overthrowing of elected governments can be pernicious for democracy and sets dangerous precedents.  In Nepal, the change in the government is not merely a domestic issue, it is set to have some ramifications on the trade between neighbouring countries, majorly India, its closest trading partner.  

If we look at the trade figures, India is Nepal’s largest trading partner and accounts for two-thirds of the Kingdom’s imports. From medicines to industrial raw materials, daily consumer goods, petroleum products and more, Nepal is heavily dependent on supplies from India. Our bilateral trade reached over $8 billion in FY 2024–25. Not only trade, millions of Nepalese people work in India and earn their livelihood and send back remittance to Nepal, which forms a major part of their GDP. On the other hand, we are sourcing Hydropower from Nepal, which is vital for our clean energy ambitions.

As someone close to the business community, I feel for businesses who are involved in cross-border trade with Nepal. I can tell you that the recent political unrest is deeply concerning. Our relationship with Nepal is built on more than just trade; it's a bond of shared culture and open borders, so when I see turmoil there, I feel it directly.

I will be very blunt here: The current situation is not at all conducive to trade with Nepal; at least at this point of time. Our supply chains, which are already susceptible to logistical challenges, are facing significant disruptions. We have had trucks carrying perishable goods and raw materials stranded at the border for days, leading to spoilage and substantial financial losses. I have heard many businesses saying that they had to halt new shipments and postpone several planned business trips to Kathmandu, including a critical meeting with a potential partner for a new joint venture. And I don't blame them. It is indeed very difficult to commit to new investments when the political landscape is so uncertain. This instability creates a sense of risk that deters both short-term trade and long-term investment.

However, I am an eternal optimist, especially when it comes to our two nations. We have seen Nepal overcome such challenges before, from the Maoist insurgency to the devastating earthquake and the COVID-19 pandemic. Each time the resilience of our bilateral relationship has helped them bounce back stronger. 

The current movement, while disruptive, seems to be driven by a genuine desire for good governance and accountability, which, if achieved, could lead to a more stable and prosperous Nepal in the long run. I believe that once the dust settles and a clear path forward emerges, business confidence will return, and trade will not only resume but hopefully grow even stronger. As of now, I have my fingers crossed!