IANS | 23 Apr, 2024
India's GDP growth trend is on the cusp of an upshift, with early
signs of it rising above 7 per cent recorded during the 2020s before
Covid-19 struck, according to the RBI's monthly bulletin for April
released on Tuesday.
"The conditions are shaping up for an
extension of a trend upshift in India's real GDP growth, backed by
strong investment demand and upbeat business and consumer sentiments,"
the report states.
It also points out that the global growth
momentum has been sustained in the first quarter of 2024 and the outlook
for global trade is turning positive. Treasury yields and mortgage
rates are ticking up in major economies on expectations of interest rate
cuts.
The positive outlook on global trade is expected to boost Indian exports and spur growth.
India’s
recent growth performance has surprised many, triggering a flurry of
upgrades. For instance, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has
cumulatively revised its forecast for 2023 upwards by 80 basis points
between April 2023 and January 2024, the RBI bulletin points out.
In
the latest update, it expects India to contribute 16 per cent of global
growth, the second largest share in the world in terms of market
exchange rates by which metric, India is the fifth largest economy in
the world and positioned to overtake Germany and Japan within the
ensuing decade.
The RBI bulletin also states that the country’s
CPI inflation has gravitated to 4.9 per cent in March after averaging
5.1 per cent in the preceding two months.
However, it cautions
that in the near term, extreme weather events may pose a risk to
inflation, along with prolonged geopolitical tensions that could keep
crude oil prices volatile.
