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Retail inflation falls to 4.70% in April
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IANS | 12 May, 2023
With retail inflation sliding to an 18-month low of 4.70 per cent in
April 2023, rating agency ICRA foresees the CPI inflation to remain
range-bound at 4.7-5.0 per cent in May-June 2023.
According
to official data, retail inflation was lower in April compared to 5.66
per cent in March 2023, owing to fall in food prices.
Aditi
Nayar, chief economist and head - research & outreach, ICRA Ltd,
while commenting on consumer price index-based inflation, said: "April
2023 was marked by above-average rainfall and lower than normal
temperatures, which helped to keep prices of some vegetables under
check."
Notwithstanding the mixed month-on-month trends across
food items, the YoY, retail food inflation is likely to remain subdued
in May 2023 aided by the sustained high base (+8.0 per cent in May
2022), she noted further.
Nayar informed that: "With El Nino
expected to materialise only in the second half of the monsoon season as
per the IMD, kharif sowing may not be impacted. However, any subsequent
deficiency in monsoon rainfall could affect kharif yields and winter
sowing, and thereby food inflation, which poses a risk to the CPI
inflation trajectory."
Although the impact of a favourable base
effect related to escalation of geopolitical conflict is likely to have
peaked in April 2023, ICRA foresees the CPI inflation to remain
range-bound at 4.7-5.0 per cent in May-June 2023, she predicted.
"With
a dip in the CPI inflation below 5 per cent and surprisingly subdued
IIP growth, we foresee a high likelihood of a pause from the monetary
policy committee of the RBI in its next meeting. However, a pivot to
rate cuts appears quite distant," she explained.
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Customs Exchange Rates |
Currency |
Import |
Export |
US Dollar
|
66.20
|
64.50 |
UK Pound
|
87.50
|
84.65 |
Euro
|
78.25
|
75.65 |
Japanese
Yen |
58.85 |
56.85 |
As on 13 Aug, 2022 |
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