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Fiscal deficit for FY23 estimated at Rs 17.5 L crore
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IANS | 17 Jan, 2023
The upcoming Indian budget for 2023-24 will be a challenging one for the
government to follow the roadmap for fiscal consolidation amidst a
global environment of declining inflation, said a top economist of State
Bank of India in a report.
For India, this could make
things difficult to set a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) number
significantly higher than 10 per cent, with a deflator about 3.5 per
cent. But this could also mean a higher GDP growth than anticipated at
about 6.2 per cent, he said.
He also said the fiscal deficit of the Indian government for FY23 will be about Rs.17.5 lakh crore.
According
to Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI, for FY23,
total receipts of the Government would be higher than the budget
estimates (BE) by around Rs 2.3 lakh crore, on account of higher direct
tax receipts (about Rs 2.2 lakh crore), higher GST receipts (Rs 95,000
crore) but lower dividends (about Rs 40,000 crore), lower fuel tax net
of cess (Rs 30,000 crore) and lower disinvestment receipts (about Rs
15000-20,000 crore).
"Meanwhile, expenditure is likely to be on
the higher side of the BE by around Rs 3 lakh crore on account of higher
subsidy bill and additional spending announced by the Government.
Taking this into account, the fiscal deficit of the Government in FY23
is expected to come at Rs 17.5 lakh crore. However, higher nominal GDP
growth (15.4 per cent) estimates will help in keeping the fiscal deficit
at 6.4 per cent of the GDP," Ghosh said.
As regards FY24, the
government's expenditure is likely to increase by around 8.2 per cent
over FY23 estimates to Rs 46 lakh crore, Ghosh said in the report.
Subsidy
bill which increased significantly in FY23 is estimated to be reduced
in FY24 to around Rs 3.8-4 lakh crore and capital expenditure is
expected to grow by 12 per cent.
Meanwhile, receipts (minus
borrowing and other liabilities) are expected to grow by about 12.1 per
cent with tax revenue receipts growth likely at 11 per cent. With
nominal GDP growth at 10 per cent, tax buoyancy is thus expected at
close to 1.1 compared to expected tax buoyancy of 1.5 in FY23.
Thus,
the fiscal deficit for FY24 is estimated at around Rs 17.95 lakh crore
or 6 per cent of GDP in FY24, thereby resulting in fiscal consolidation
of 40 bps from the current fiscal, the report notes.
"As far as
borrowing is concerned, we believe net market borrowing of the Centre in
FY24 will be around Rs. 11.7 lakh crore and with repayments of Rs 4.4
lakh crore, gross borrowing is expected at Rs 16.1 lakh crore. We
believe a switch of about Rs 50,000 crore is also likely to be
announced," the report said.
With higher tax devolution from the
Centre, the states are likely to borrow around Rs 8 lakh crore in FY23,
lower than earlier anticipated.
"In FY24, the overall gross
borrowing by Centre and States is likely to be Rs 24.3 lakh crore (Rs.
22.2lakh crore in FY23) and net borrowings Rs. 17 lakh crore (Rs 16.7
lakh crore in FY23). We further believe that the Government will
continue to rely on small saving schemes (Rs 5 lakh crore likely in
FY24).
According to the report, the government can give a hard
push to Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana (SSY), through encouraging fresh
registrations in a mission drive mode, allowing one time registrations
for all leftover cases up to 12 years.
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Customs Exchange Rates |
Currency |
Import |
Export |
US Dollar
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66.20
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64.50 |
UK Pound
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87.50
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84.65 |
Euro
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78.25
|
75.65 |
Japanese
Yen |
58.85 |
56.85 |
As on 13 Aug, 2022 |
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