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RBI says 75% of rise in inflation projection for FY23 due to food
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IANS | 08 Jun, 2022
Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das, while estimating India's
overall retail inflation for FY23 at 6.7 per cent, said that the 75 per
cent of the increase in inflation projections can be attributed to the
food group.
"It may be noted that around 75 per cent of
the increase in inflation projections can be attributed to the food
group. Further, the baseline inflation projection of 6.7 per cent for
2022-23 does not take into account the impact of monetary policy actions
taken today," Das said in his remarks earlier this morning while
spelling out the outcome of the ongoing monetary policy review meeting
that started on Monday.
For FY23, the RBI sees overall inflation
at 6.7 per cent, with 7.5 per cent in Q1, 7.4 per cent in Q2, 6.2 per
cent in Q3, and 5.8 per cent in Q4, taking into consideration the normal
monsoon and average crude oil basket price of $105 per barrel.
India's
retail inflation is likely to stay above the tolerance level of 6 per
cent till third quarter of FY23 before moderating below 6 per cent, Das
said.
India's retail inflation has been above RBI's 6 per cent
tolerance level for four months in a row, while wholesale inflation in
the country has been in double digits for over a year now.
'Between
February and April, headline inflation has increased by about 170 basis
points. With no resolution of the war in sight and the upside risks to
inflation, prudent monetary policy measures would ensure that the
second-round effects of supply side shocks on the economy are contained
and long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored and
inflation gradually aligns close to the target. The monetary policy
actions including withdrawal of accommodation will be calibrated keeping
in mind the requirements of the ongoing economic recovery."
The
inflation projection of 6.7 per cent for FY23, however, does not take
into account the impact of monetary policy actions taken on Wednesday,
Das said.
The RBI on Wednesday raised the repo rate by 50 basis
points to 4.9 per cent to tame rising inflation, which has been now
above RBI's 6 per cent tolerance level for four months in a row.
Coming
to growth, India's real GDP growth in FY23 is seen at 7.2 per cent,
will 16.2 per cent in Q1, 6.2 per cent in Q2, 4.1 in Q3, and 4.0 in Q4,
with risks broadly balanced, Das said in his post policy statement.
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Customs Exchange Rates |
Currency |
Import |
Export |
US Dollar
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66.20
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64.50 |
UK Pound
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87.50
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84.65 |
Euro
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78.25
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75.65 |
Japanese
Yen |
58.85 |
56.85 |
As on 13 Aug, 2022 |
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