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Real GDP growth for FY23 seen at 7.5%
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IANS | 02 Jun, 2022
India's real gross domestic product (GDP) in FY23 is expected to be at 7.5 per cent, said SBI Research in a report.
"Given
the high inflation and the subsequent upcoming rate hikes, we believe
that real GDP will incrementally increase by Rs 11.1 lakh crore in
FY23," the report said.
For FY23 also, as inflation remains
elevated in the first half, the report said the projection is that
nominal GDP will grow by 16.1 per cent.
The report mentioned some
of the factors that will impact the GDP growth for FY23.In FY22, around
2000 Corporates in listed space reported 29 per cent growth in top line
and 52 per cent growth in profit after tax, besides sector-wise data
for April Indicated that credit off-take had happened in almost all
sectors.
"Personal loans segment continued to perform well,
registering acceleration in growth to 14.7 per cent in April 2022 and
contributed around 90 per cent of the incremental credit during the
month, primarily driven by 'Housing', 'Vehicle Loans' and 'Other
Personal Loans' segments. Customers, especially in retail verticals
could be having a feel of future run expected in interest rates, and
might be front loading their purchases in days to come, giving a fillip
to consumer demands in select niche areas."
Further, SBI Research
said it expects central bank RBI to be supportive of growth and hike
repo rates gradually, but mostly front load it in June and August policy
review meetings.
It expects a 50 basis point repo rate hike and
25 basis point cash reserve ratio rate hike in forthcoming June policy
meet. RBI is likely to raise the repo rate cumulatively by 125-150 basis
points over the pandemic level of 4 per cent. RBI might also increase
the cash reserve ratio rate cumulatively by another 50 basis points,
after raising it by 50 basis points in the last monetary policy meet.
Lastly,
the report said it was keenly watching the uncertainties regarding the
crude oil prices. "At $120 per barrel, it still poses significant
uncertainties regarding inflation trajectory. We, however, now believe
that inflation will average 6.5-6.7 per cent in FY23 on the back of
excise rate cuts by the government. Independent forecasts reveal that
oil prices could climb further before declining, but it might still hold
up at current levels for a longer period of time."
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Customs Exchange Rates |
Currency |
Import |
Export |
US Dollar
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66.20
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64.50 |
UK Pound
|
87.50
|
84.65 |
Euro
|
78.25
|
75.65 |
Japanese
Yen |
58.85 |
56.85 |
As on 13 Aug, 2022 |
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