|
|
|
'India's recovery is on a solid path', is world's top economic performer: UN report
|
|
|
|
Top Stories |
|
|
|
|
SME Times News Bureau | 14 Jan, 2022
"India's recovery is on a solid path", the UN said on Thursday reporting
that the country recorded the highest estimated growth rate among the
major economies last year and is set to be on the same trajectory during
this year and the next.
The UN's annual World Economic Situation
and Prospects (WESP) report estimated the growth rate of India's gross
domestic product (GDP) at 9 per cent last year and forecast it to
moderate to 6.7 per cent this year and 6.1 per cent next year but still
retain the highest growth rates among the large economies.
In
2020, the year Covid-19 pandemic struck the world, India's economy had
shrunk by 7.1 per cent - a negative growth rate - according to the
report.
China, which came next among the large economies, was
estimated to have grown by 7.8 per cent last year and forecast to grow
by 5.2 per cent this year and 5.5 per cent next year.
Overall,
the global economy's growth was estimated to be 5.5 per cent last year,
bouncing back from a shrinkage of 3.4 per cent in 2020.
The growth projections are 4 per cent this year and 3.5 per cent in 2023.
The
report said: "India's economic recovery is on a solid path, amid rapid
vaccination progress, less stringent social restrictions and still
supportive fiscal and monetary stances."
The WESP raised India's
growth estimate for last year by 1.7 per cent and the growth projection
for this year by 0.8 per cent from the expectations in its report a year
ago.
It ascribed slowing down of growth from 9 per cent last year to 6.7 per cent this year to waning base effects.
While
"robust export growth and public investments underpin economic
activity", the WESP warned that "high oil prices and coal shortages
could put the brakes on economic activity in the near term".
"It will remain crucial to encourage private investment to support inclusive growth beyond the recovery," it advised.
"Inflation
is expected to decelerate throughout 2022, continuing a trend observed
since the second half of 2021 when relatively restrained food prices
compensated for higher oil prices," the report said while attaching a
note of caution: "A sudden and renewed rise in food inflation, however,
due to unpredictable weather, broader supply disruptions and higher
agricultural prices, could undermine food security, reduce real incomes
and increase hunger across the South Asia) region."
The report
estimated India's consumer price inflation at 5.9 per cent last year and
projected to go down to 5.6 per cent this year and 5.3 per cent next
year.
The WESP said that it expected the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates throughout this year.
In
its snapshot of the world economy, the report said: "The global
economic recovery is facing significant headwinds amid new waves of
Covid-19 infections, persistent labour market challenges, lingering
supply-chain challenges and rising inflationary pressures."
"The
momentum for growth - especially in China, the United States and the
European Union - slowed considerably by the end of 2021, as the effects
of monetary and fiscal stimuli began to recede and major supply-chain
disruptions emerged," according to the report.
Assessing the
scenario in the report, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said: "In
this fragile and uneven period of global recovery, the World Economic
Situation and Prospects 2022 calls for better targeted and coordinated
policy and financial measures at the national and international levels."
The 46 countries classified as the least developed are estimated to grow by only 1.4 per cent this year, according to the WESP.
"The
time is now to close the inequality gaps within and among countries. If
we work in solidarity - as one human family - we can make 2022 a true
year of recovery for people and economies alike," Guterres said.
The WESP painted a mixed picture for South Asia.
"Amid
sound macroeconomic policies, Bangladesh has navigated the Covid-19
pandemic relatively well" and its "GDP is projected to expand by 6 per
cent in 2022", the report said.
Its "economic activity rides on
export growth and the rising demand for apparel, robust remittance
inflows, and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies", it added.
Pakistan's
economy after an economic expansion of 4.5 per cent in 2021, is
projected to grow by 3.9 per cent in 2022 "driven by private
consumption, record-high remittances and fiscal support", according to
the report.
But for Sri Lanka, the WESP projected a GDP growth of
2.6 per cent for this year and said that "its major challenges include
food shortages, dwindling foreign reserves and sovereign debt risks".
Among
the developed countries, the UK was projected to be the top performer
with a 4.5 per cent GDP growth this year, after a 6.2 per cent estimated
growth last year.
The European Union' growth was estimated at 4.7 per cent last year and projected to be 3.9 per cent this year.
For the United States, the report estimated the growth at 5.5 per cent last year and projected it to be 3.5 per cent this year.
While
the WESP used the calendar year calculations for the report to enable
comparisons between countries, it also gave this growth picture for
India on a fiscal year basis - 2020-2021: -(minus)10.6 per cent;
2021-22: 8.4 per cent; 2022-223: 6.5 per cent, and 2023-24: 5.9 per
cent.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Customs Exchange Rates |
Currency |
Import |
Export |
US Dollar
|
66.20
|
64.50 |
UK Pound
|
87.50
|
84.65 |
Euro
|
78.25
|
75.65 |
Japanese
Yen |
58.85 |
56.85 |
As on 13 Aug, 2022 |
|
|
Daily Poll |
|
|
PM Modi's recent US visit to redefine India-US bilateral relations |
|
|
|
|
|
Commented Stories |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|