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'First four months' performance consistent with IMF's growth forecast'
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IANS | 19 Aug, 2022
Even as the global economic outlook is challenging, the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) had forecast India's economy to grow at a robust
rate of 7.4 per cent in 2022-23, the highest among major economies.
According to the Monthly Economic Review published by the
Ministry of Finance, the buoyant performance of some high-frequency
indicators during the first four months of 2022-23 is consistent with
IMF's forecast.
"Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and eight
core industries point towards strengthening of industrial activity,
while PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) Manufacturing touched an
eight-month high in July with marked gains in growth of new business and
output," the review noted.
The services sector, which was
impacted the most by the Covid-19 pandemic, can emerge as a key growth
driver, buoyed by the release of pent-up demand, easing of mobility
restrictions and near universal coverage in vaccination, the review
said.
While real estate and information technology business
process managements have recovered completely to the pre-pandemic levels
of 2019-20, the logistics, tourism and hotel industries continue to be
on the path of recovery, having now come close to the pre-pandemic
levels.
The review noted a decline in the Gross Non-Performing
Assets (GNPA) ratio of the banking sector from 7.5 per cent in the June
quarter of 2021 to 5.7 per cent in the June quarter of 2022.
The
rising financial soundness of banks as well as that of the corporates
have been boosting the year-on-year (YoY) growth of non-food bank credit
since the June quarter of 2021. The YoY growth in non-food bank credit
stood at 14 per cent in June 2022.
On inflation, the review said
the domestic inflationary pressure has moderated the downward movement
of global commodity prices along with the RBI's monetary measures, and
the government's fiscal policies are expected to cap inflationary
pressures in the coming months.
The other highlights of the review are:
*
Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) in July have been net purchasers to
the extent of $458 million. In August, until the 12th, FPI net inflows
have been around $2.9 billion
* The net foreign direct investment
(FDI) inflows were at $13.6 billion in Q1 of 2022-23, as against $11.6
billion during the corresponding period of the previous year
*
The robust production of capital goods along with the government's capex
push and large expansion in bank credit will uphold the investment
activity
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Customs Exchange Rates |
Currency |
Import |
Export |
US Dollar
|
66.20
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64.50 |
UK Pound
|
87.50
|
84.65 |
Euro
|
78.25
|
75.65 |
Japanese
Yen |
58.85 |
56.85 |
As on 13 Aug, 2022 |
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