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Consumers worried over income growth prospects, job outlook
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IANS | 19 Aug, 2022
Consumers are worried over their income growth prospects, while
businesses are very confident about their profit margins, as per a
report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services
While the
consumers' spending outlook is bleak, businesses appear very confident
on maintaining a strong order book. Although consumers are highly
concerned over job outlook, employers are much more optimistic, the
report said.
Never ever in the past has there been such wide
divergence between the current assessment of the businesses and consumer
sectors.
The current situation index of CCS almost halved to 50
in 2HCY20 and 1HCY21 from 100 in the pre-Covid period (i.e., 1HCY19). It
has recovered since then, albeit, stayed very low at just 76.6 in
1QFY23. In contrast, the current assessment of businesses also plummeted
to 56.5 in 1QFY21 from 108 in the pre-Covid period. However, it
recovered dramatically to 100.6 in 2QFY21 and has been above 110 during
the past four quarters.
As far as expectations are concerned,
although the fall was not so large, consumers continue to remain
considerably less optimistic than the pre-Covid period. In contrast,
Indian businesses are the most optimistic in the past two decades, since
when this data has been available.
Consumers' category may
remain cautious, as their financial position deteriorated significantly.
If so, the expectation of a strong order book may actually reflect a
shift in the market share (from the unlisted/unorganized/small to
listed/organized/large companies), rather than the general broad-based
improvement in the real economy, the report said.
The Reserve
Bank of India conducts Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS) and Industrial
Outlook Survey (IOS) to make such informed expectations.
IOS
provides an assessment of business situation of companies in the
manufacturing sector and CCS renders an assessment of the consumer
sentiments of the respondents based on their perceptions of the general
economic conditions and own financial situation.
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Customs Exchange Rates |
Currency |
Import |
Export |
US Dollar
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66.20
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64.50 |
UK Pound
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87.50
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84.65 |
Euro
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78.25
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75.65 |
Japanese
Yen |
58.85 |
56.85 |
As on 13 Aug, 2022 |
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