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'Economic recovery may take more than a year'
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SME Times News Bureau | 04 May, 2020
The nationwide lockdown has had deep ramifications on economic activity
and according to a CEO Snap Poll by the Confederation of Indian Industry
(CII), 44.7 per cent of the corporate chiefs believe that it would take
more than a year for the Indian economy to recover.
According to
the snap poll on the 'Impact of COVID-19 on Economy and Industry', as a
majority of the firms continue to anticipate a significant decline in
their revenues, they now foresee a delay in economic revival and demand
recovery.
"The survey results reveal that the country may
experience a protracted slowdown in economic activity as a major
proportion of the respondents, around 45 per cent feel it will take more
than a year to achieve economic normalcy once the lockdown ends," a CII
statement said.
Around 36.5 per cent of the corporate bosses
feel that economic recovery of the country may be achieved in 6-12
months. Around 17 per cent of the respondents were of the view that
recovery would be achieved in 3-6 months, followed by 1.8 per cent who
felt that it would require a three-month period.
With respect to
their own companies, the respondents anticipate a slightly quicker
recovery, with 34 per cent of the respondents indicating a 6-12 month
period for recovery of their companies, the survey showed.
Further,
a major proportion of the respondents anticipate normalcy in domestic
demand conditions within 6-12 months, post lockdown.
The survey saw the participation of more than 300 CEOs, of which nearly two-thirds belonged to MSMEs.
"The
lockdown brought economic activity to a grinding halt and the survey
findings indicate that a significant majority of the firms (65 per cent)
expect revenues to fall more than 40 per cent in the current quarter
(Apr-Jun 2020)," it said.
For financial year 2020-21, the
expectations of a fall in revenue are staggered, with 33 per cent of the
firms anticipating a revenue fall of more than 40 per cent, closely
followed by 32 per cent of firms expecting a revenue contraction ranging
between 20-40 per cent.
The survey revealed that while three out
of four firms have identified that a complete shutdown of operations
was a major constraint being faced by businesses, more than half of them
have also indicated lack of demand for products as a hindrance to
business activity.
On the jobs and livelihood front, more than
half of the firms, around 54 per cent foresee job losses in their
respective sectors after the lockdown ends. A major share of
respondents, 45 per cent of them expect 15-30 per cent cut in jobs.
However,
allaying some concerns, nearly two-thirds of the respondents reported
that they have not experienced a salary or wage cut in their firms so
far. Among those who have witnessed a wage cut, the duration of the same
is 'undecided' for a majority, showed the poll.
Chandrajit
Banerjee, Director General, CII said: "While the lockdown was necessary
to mitigate the impact of coronavirus on the population, it has had dire
implications for economic activity. At this hour, the industry awaits a
stimulus package for economic revival and livelihood sustenance besides
calibrated exit from the lockdown."
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Customs Exchange Rates |
Currency |
Import |
Export |
US Dollar
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84.35
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82.60 |
UK Pound
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106.35
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102.90 |
Euro
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92.50
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89.35 |
Japanese
Yen |
55.05 |
53.40 |
As on 12 Oct, 2024 |
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