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Exim Bank pegs Q3 non-oil exports at $ 68.3bn
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SME Times News Bureau | 17 Dec, 2020
Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India's Non-Oil
exports for the third quarter of FY2021 to amount to $ 68.3 billion,
witnessing a marginal positive growth of 0.3 per cent over the
corresponding quarter of the previous year, after three consecutive
quarters of contraction.
On the other hand, total merchandise
exports are forecast to continue to witness a moderation to $ 77.6
billion in the third quarter of 2020-21, as compared to $ 79 billion in
the corresponding quarter of the previous year, on the back of one of
the steepest and continued contractions in India's oil exports,
witnessed since March 2020.
The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank's Export Leading Index (ELI) Model.
Forecast
of growth in India's total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are
released by India Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week
of the months of June, September, December and March for the
corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The
next growth forecast for India's exports for the quarter January-March
202I would be released during the first week of March 202I.
The
model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing
technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha
Roy, Professor and Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department
of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director,
Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India,
Mumbai; Professor N.R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University,
Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi
Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.
As part of
its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank had developed an in-house
model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and
forecast the movement in India's exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI
gauges the outlook for the country's exports and is essentially
developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise
and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on
several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the
country.
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Import |
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