SME Times News Bureau | 03 Aug, 2020
A likely cut in
repo rate will weaken the Indian rupee, which has lately been supported by
healthy fund inflows.
Analysts said that the currency will move into a range between 75 and 74.50 as
rising forex reserves keep the rupee in check.
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to release its resolution on
the monetary policy after its meeting on August 4 to 6.
It is widely expected that the Reserve Bank of India is likely to administer
another dose of lending rate cut to aid the revival process from the Covid-19
induced economic downturn.
"The RBI is lapping up dollars heavily under 75 and speculators are
supplying. A rate cut may marginally weaken the rupee, but not much as
relatively undervalued rupee and high rate differential with the US can support
the currency. A range of 75.25 and 74.70 is on cards," said Anindya
Banerjee, DVP, Currency and Rates, Kotak Securities.
Recently, India's foreign exchange reserves increased by $4.99 billion during
the week ended July 24. The reserves grew to $522.63 billion from $517.637
India's forex reserves comprise foreign currency assets (FCAs), gold reserve s,
special drawing rights (SDRs) and the RBI's position with the International
Monetary Fund (IMF).
According to Sajal Gupta, Head, Forex and Rates, Edelweiss Securities:
"The market shall be watching the RBI commentary on monetary policy. MPC
is expected to be dovish and growth supporting. Break below 74.50 would only
give further direction to the market."
Last Friday, the rupee marginally appreciated to 74.81 against a greenback.
"We expect a rate cut of at least 25 bps to support the slowing
growth," said Rahul Gupta, Head of Research-Currency, Emkay Global
"This may give a boost to risk appetite and weigh on the USD-INR spot.
Although the spot has not broken the crucial support of 74.50, unless it falls
below that, we expect the spot to remain afloat. The trend for the next week
will continue to be sideways with bearish bias between 74.50 and 75.10,"