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Last updated: 04 Sep, 2019  

India.Growth.9.Thmb.jpg FY 2020 GDP growth forecast cut by Crisil

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SME Times News Bureau | 04 Sep, 2019

Ratings agency Crisil on Wednesday said it has revised downwards its India gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for fiscal 2020 to 6.3 per cent from an earlier estimated rate of 6.9 per cent.

Just a week back, a plunge in domestic private consumption demand, slump in manufacturing, halving of merchandise exports growth, and a high-base effect from last year gnawed away at first-quarter growth which came in at 5 per cent.

Fiscal 2020's first quarter GDP growth estimate at 5 per cent was the slowest in 25 quarters.

According to the agency, the 6.3 per cent GDP growth rate is under the assumption that the second quarter will see some mild pick-up in growth, which continues through the year.

"We expect growth to get some lift from the low base effect that will now set in (second half fiscal 2019 GDP growth was at 6.2 per cent)," the agency said.

"An easing monetary policy, improved transmission of rate cuts, and the government's minimum income support scheme to farmers would also feed into consumption. The recently announced steps by the Finance Minister will also address some pain points and support sentiment."

Recently, Moody’s Investors Service has cut India’s GDP growth rate to 6.2 per cent for calendar year 2019 against its earlier projection of 6.8 per cent.

The rating agency scaled down India’s economic growth to 6.7 per cent for 2020, a cut of another 0.6 percentage points.

Pulled down by severe slowdown in manufacturing activity, GDP growth rate in first quarter (Q1) ended June down to 5 percent, marking the fourth successive quarter of decline in growth on the trot.

 
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