SME Times News Bureau | 14 Oct, 2019
A World Bank report on Sunday estimated India's economic
growth in the current fiscal at 6 per cent.
The latest estimate is lower than the Reserve Bank of
India's latest revised outlook of 6.1 per cent.
This comes as another bleak outlook for the economy, after recent downward
revision of GDP estimate by Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Organisation of
Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) apart from the RBI and a couple of
rating agencies.
"In India, after the broad-based deceleration in the first quarters of
this fiscal year, growth is projected to fall to 6.0 per cent this fiscal
year," said the report named "South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2019:
Making (De)centralization Work".
It, however, said that growth is expected to gradually recover to 6.9 per cent
in fiscal year 2020 and to 7.2 per cent in the following year.
The growth forecast for India for the financial year 2019-20 was even lower
than that of Nepal and Bangladesh which the estimates to grow at 6.5 per cent
and 7.2 per cent respectively.
The report said: "The remarkable weakness of Indian economic activity
during the first half of 2019 is largely driven by external and cyclical
factors. However, during this downturn several structural problems have come to
the surface."
One of these problems is related to vulnerabilities in the financial markets
that have constrained credit supply, the report said, adding that financial
sector reforms are needed to bring India back to a rapid growth path.
The estimate comes, just days after Moody's Investor Services and India Ratings
and Research reduced their FY20 growth forecast for India to 5.8 per cent and
6.1 per cent, respectively.
The RBI in its Monetary Policy Report - October 2019, sharply revised the
India's GDP growth estimate for the current fiscal to 6.1 per cent from 6.9 per
cent. Recently, the ADB and the OECD lowered India's growth forecasts to 6.5%
and 5.9%, respectively.