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Last updated: 08 Nov, 2019  

Up.Down.Arrow.9.Thmb.jpg Most macro indicators in red zone, shows study

GDP.9.jpg
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SME Times News Bureau | 08 Nov, 2019

Over the last six months, macro growth indicators such as vehicle sales, coal output, cargo moved by airlines and net tonne kilometre freight of railways has consistently fallen, finds a new study.

A heat-map prepared by CEIC and Nomura Global Economics has shown most macroeconomic data slipping into red since first quarter of the current fiscal.

The heat map for these indicators have turned red with the September figures of vehicle sales, coal output and exports falling into deeper shade of red.

The high frequency data across sectors point to deeper slowdown in the economy with monthly and quarterly numbers either slowing or recording negative growth.

As reflected by Night-Light data taken by satellite, the heat-map shows economic activities have been slowing since 2016.

The Nomura heat map underlines the growth concerns in coming quarters and the need for more booster dose to revive crisis-hit sectors.

As per the map, passenger vehicles, two-wheeler, tractors, LCV and HCV sales continued to decline with not a single monthly positive number reported in the entire fiscal till September. In the month of September, passenger vehicle sales recorded 28 per cent decline, one of the worst monthly sales.

The data, however, showed that government spending has markedly gone up in the current fiscal. It grew 29.3 per cent in August and 64.6 per cent in September suggesting government was trying to make up for the low investment by the private sector.

As regards the external sector, the data showed all its segments such as foreign tourist arrivals, exports volume and imports volume to be in the red boxes during the current financial year.

Among industry data, while coal production fell sharply, steel output softened. Electricity generation slumped to 1 per cent in September from 6.4 per cent in the April-June quarter.

In the month of September, only 26 per cent of the total macro indicators showed signs of acceleration.

 
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