SME Times News Bureau | 08 Nov, 2019
Over the last six months, macro growth indicators such as
vehicle sales, coal output, cargo moved by airlines and net tonne kilometre
freight of railways has consistently fallen, finds a new study.
A heat-map prepared by CEIC and Nomura Global Economics has shown most macroeconomic
data slipping into red since first quarter of the current fiscal.
The heat map for these indicators have turned red with the
September figures of vehicle sales, coal output and exports falling into deeper
shade of red.
The high frequency data across sectors point to deeper slowdown in the economy
with monthly and quarterly numbers either slowing or recording negative growth.
As reflected by Night-Light data taken by satellite, the heat-map shows
economic activities have been slowing since 2016.
The Nomura heat map underlines the growth concerns in coming quarters and the
need for more booster dose to revive crisis-hit sectors.
As per the map, passenger vehicles, two-wheeler, tractors, LCV and HCV sales
continued to decline with not a single monthly positive number reported in the
entire fiscal till September. In the month of September, passenger vehicle
sales recorded 28 per cent decline, one of the worst monthly sales.
The data, however, showed that government spending has markedly gone up in the
current fiscal. It grew 29.3 per cent in August and 64.6 per cent in September
suggesting government was trying to make up for the low investment by the
As regards the external sector, the data showed all its segments such as
foreign tourist arrivals, exports volume and imports volume to be in the red
boxes during the current financial year.
Among industry data, while coal production fell sharply, steel output softened.
Electricity generation slumped to 1 per cent in September from 6.4 per cent in
the April-June quarter.
In the month of September, only 26 per cent of the total macro indicators
showed signs of acceleration.