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India set to grow faster with post-election recovery: IMF
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Arun Kumar | 08 Oct, 2014
With India's growth increasing on rising business confidence and
stronger manufacturing activity since the April-May general election,
it's expected to grow faster in the rest of 2014 and 2015, according to
the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
India is "projected to
grow at 5.6 percent in 2014 and pick up further to 6.4 percent in 2015
as both exports and investment increase", it said Tuesday in its latest
report on global economic health.
Increased exports and
investment would "more than offset the effect of an unfavourable monsoon
on agricultural growth earlier in the year", the 188-nation watchdog
said in its October World Economic Outlook (WEO).
"The
post-election recovery of confidence in India also provides an
opportunity" for India "to embark on its much-needed structural
reforms", it said.
After "several years of slowing growth
prospects", the WEO suggested, "It is time for major emerging market
economies to turn to important structural reforms to raise growth more
robustly".
For India, the suggested agenda included removing
infrastructure bottlenecks in the power sector and implementing reforms
to education, labour, and product markets to raise competitiveness and
productivity.
"In emerging market economies, lower potential
growth is the dominating factor," the WEO said, suggesting, "For these
economies as a whole, potential growth is now forecast to be 1.5 percent
lower than in 2011."
"Here again, differentiation is the rule.
China is sustaining high growth, but slightly lower growth in the future
is seen to be a healthy development," it said.
On the other
hand, WEO noted, "India has recovered from its relative slump; thanks in
part to effective policies and a renewal of confidence, growth is
expected once again to exceed 5 percent."
With recent monetary tightening, disinflation should continue in India, it said.
But inflation overall will remain high at 7.8 percent in 2014, declining slightly to 7.5 percent in 2015, the WEO added.
With
world growth in the first half of 2014 slower than expected, the latest
WEO projected global growth for 2014 at 3.3 percent, 0.4 percentage
point lower relative to the April 2014 report.
The growth projection for 2015 was also slightly lower at 3.8 percent.
These
projections, it said, were predicated on the assumption that key
drivers supporting the recovery in advanced economies - including
moderating fiscal consolidation and highly accommodative monetary policy
- remain in place.
Projections also assume a decline in geopolitical tensions, supporting some recovery in stressed economies, it said.
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Customs Exchange Rates |
Currency |
Import |
Export |
US Dollar
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66.20
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64.50 |
UK Pound
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87.50
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84.65 |
Euro
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78.25
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75.65 |
Japanese
Yen |
58.85 |
56.85 |
As on 13 Aug, 2022 |
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