FICCI estimates India's Q1 GDP to grow at 7.6 pc

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SME Times News Bureau | 31 Aug, 2016
Industry chamber FICCI has estimated India's national income for the first quarter of the current fiscal 2016-17, figures for which are due for release on Wednesday, to grow at 7.6 percent.

"The estimated median GVA (gross value added) growth for Q1 FY17 has been put at 7.6 percent," the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) said in a statement here on Tuesday.

"Latest round of FICCI's Economic Outlook Survey puts across a median GDP growth forecast of 7.8 percent for the current fiscal year," it said.

The latest survey round was conducted during July-August 2016 among leading economists belonging to the industry, banking and financial services sector, FICCI said.

"There has been a marginal improvement in the growth estimate for 2016-17 vis-a-vis the previous round and this comes at the back of better performance of the agriculture and industry sector. The monsoon season has been good this year which is expected to support agricultural production," it added.

India's national income figures are due for release on Wednesday, against the backdrop of expectations aroused by a normal monsoon and the recent pay hikes for central government employees.

The government expects GDP growth to pick up to eight percent in 2016-17, from 7.6 percent in 2015-16.

"A number of structural reforms have been undertaken by the government over the last two years. The impact of all this is beginning to be felt now. We are hoping to better our growth from last year and get closer to eight percent," Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das told reporters here last week.

"Also, this year, monsoon has been good. Agriculture production is expected to be better than previous two years which will contribute significantly to GDP," he added.

Financial services firm DBS said in a research note that on gross value added basis, India's growth is expected to have stabilized at 7.4 percent in the June quarter, which is slightly higher than the 7.2 percent in the same quarter a year ago.

"For the year we look for growth to average 7.8 percent this year, from FY15/16's 7.2 percent," it said.

Multilateral agencies like the International Monetary Fund (7.4 percent) and the Asian Development Bank (7.4 percent) have estimated that the Indian economy is likely to slow down from last year's level.

In the fourth quarter of 2015-16 ending March, India's economy accelerated to grow at 7.9 percent, buoyed by improved agricultural performance and growth in consumption.

Private consumption growth remained robust at 7.4 percent in 2015-16, though it was marginally revised downward from the 7.6 percent estimated earlier.

Central Statistics Office (CSO) data showed India's economy grew at 7.6 percent in 2015-16, making the country the fastest growing major economy for the second consecutive year despite two failed monsoons.