IANS | 11 Sep, 2023
The primary driver of the rally in small and mid caps appears to be
irrational exuberance among investors, with high return expectations and
purchase decisions being driven by the high returns of the past few
months, Kotak Institutional Equities said in a report.
"We see
limited point in trying to find fundamental reasons behind the steep
increase in stock prices of several mid-cap and small-cap stocks," it
said.
"In our view, the steep increase in stock prices simply
reflects the irrational exuberance of investors in the mid-cap and
small-cap parts of the market," it said.
"There is no meaningful
change in the fundamentals of most companies; in fact, they have
worsened in many cases," the report added.
"We do not see many
fundamental reasons for the meteoric rise in the stock prices of many
mid-cap and small-cap stocks in the past few months. The fundamentals of
most sectors have not changed much. However, market sentiment is quite
exuberant, based on steep increase in the prices of many mid-cap and
small-cap. Stocks, large inflows into midcap and small-cap mutual funds
and huge number of new retail participants in the mid-cap and
small-cap," the report said.
The strong performance of the mid-cap. and small-cap. indices has possibly pushed up return expectations among retail investors.
Most
of the traditional favorite mid-cap stocks of institutional investors
in the broader 'consumption' sector have been large laggards in the
ongoing mid-cap rally given weak consumption demand in general.
However, the valuations of these companies have stayed high or gone to historical-high levels due to earnings cuts.
Many
of the new favorite mid-and-small-cap. stocks of institutional and
retail investors are in the broader 'investment' sector (capital goods,
defence, EMS, railways, real estate, renewables).
These stocks have delivered eye-popping returns in the past 3-6 months led by the broader 'investment' narrative.
"We
expect a decent investment cycle, but we are not sure about the quality
of many of the stocks given their historical weak execution and
governance track-records. In addition, many of these sectors fall in the
B2G (business-to-government) or B2B categories, which raises issues
around execution and profitability both. We believe that market
expectations for both revenues and profitability may be too optimistic
across these sectors," the report said.
The last lot of the new favorite mid-and-small-cap stocks fall in the dubious category of 'turnaround' stories.
Many
of these companies have been through serious operational and financial
challenges (including bankruptcy) in the recent past, but the market has
high hopes of these companies doing well in the future. We are not sure
of the basis of the market's confidence, it added.
"We are
dropping our recommended mid-cap portfolio since we cannot find too many
stocks beyond the BFSI space that offer decent potential upside to our
12-month Fair value," it said.