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Further demand slowdown on the cards: NCAER
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SME Times News Bureau | 16 Nov, 2019
Economic think-tank, National Council of Applied Economic Research
(NCAER) on Saturday said India is likely to see a further slowdown in
aggregate demand and GDP growth during 2019-20.
NCAER also
anticipated a recurrence of the large shortfall in tax revenue observed
in 2018-19 but also added that its impact on the total revenue will be
moderated on account of the massive transfer of RBI surpluses.
"The
credit squeeze for the MSME sector has been aggravated following the
default by IL&FS, which hit the NBFCs. We are, therefore, likely to
see a further slowdown in aggregate demand and GDP growth during 2019-20
compared to 2018-19," NCAER said.
Its outlook on the industrial
sector was also grim as the Q2: 2019-20, the Index of Industrial
Production (IIP) showed a year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in growth of (-)
0.4 per cent as compared to growth of 5.3 per cent in Q2: 2018-19.
NCAER's
expectation on the agricultural sector's performance, is however,
positive owing to the normal rainfall this year, despite its late
arrival. It estimates the output of kharif foodgrains to be in the
region of 149.1 million tonnes, which indicates an increase over last
year's record output of 141.7 million tonnes.
"The expected
increase in output is attributable to the strong performance of all the
three crop groups, viz., rice, coarse cereals, and pulses. The current
year's water storage in dams as on October 24, 2019 was 127 per cent of
the long-term average, also pointing to an encouraging outlook for the
rabi season," NCAER added.
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