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Oils entering uncertain, volatile period: IEA
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SME Times News Bureau | 13 Nov, 2018
Oil markets are entering a period of renewed uncertainty and volatility,
including a possible supply gap in the early 2020s, the International
Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.
Demand for natural gas is on
the rise erasing talk of a glut, as China turns into a giant consumer,
it said. Solar PV is surging ahead, but other low-carbon technologies
and especially efficiency policies still require a big push.
These
facts came to light in the IEA publication World Energy Outlook 2018,
which detailed global energy trends and what possible impact they would
have on supply and demand, carbon emissions, air pollution and energy
access.
Major transformations were underway for the global energy
sector, from growing electrification to the expansion of renewables,
upheavals in oil production and globalisation of natural gas markets.
Across all regions and fuels, policy choices made by governments would determine the shape of the energy system of the future.
At
a time when geopolitical factors were exerting new and complex
influences on energy markets, underscoring the critical importance of
energy security, the World Energy Outlook's scenario-based analysis
outlines different possible futures for the energy system across all
fuels and technologies.
It offers a contrast with different
pathways, based on current and planned policies, and those that can meet
long term climate goals under the Paris Climate Change Agreement,
reducing air pollution and ensuring universal energy access.
While
the geography of energy consumption continues its historic shift to
Asia, the World Energy Outlook finds mixed signals on the pace and
direction of change.
In all cases, governments would have a critical influence in the direction of the future energy system.
Under
current and planned policies, modelled in the New Policies Scenario,
energy demand is set to grow by more than 25 per cent by 2040, requiring
more than $2 trillion a year of investment in new energy supply.
"Our
analysis shows that over 70 per cent of global energy investments will
be government-driven and as such the message is clear, the world's
energy destiny lies with government decisions," IEA's Executive Director
Fatih Birol said.
"Crafting the right policies and proper
incentives will be critical to meeting our common goals of securing
energy supplies, reducing carbon emissions, improving air quality in
urban centres, and expanding basic access to energy in Africa and
elsewhere."
The analysis also showed that oil consumption would
grow in the coming decades, due to rising petro-chemicals, trucking and
aviation demand. But meeting this growth in the near term meant that
approvals of conventional oil projects needed to double from their
current low levels.
Without such a pick-up in investment, US
shale production, which has already been expanding at a record pace,
would have to add more than 10 million barrels a day from today to 2025,
the equivalent of adding another Russia to global supply in seven
years, which would be a historically unprecedented feat.
In power
markets, renewables have become the technology of choice, making up
almost two-thirds of global capacity additions to 2040, thanks to
falling costs and supportive government policies.
This is
transforming the global power mix, with the share of renewables in
generation rising to over 40 per cent by 2040, from 25 per cent today,
even though coal remains the largest source and gas remains the
second-largest.
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Customs Exchange Rates |
Currency |
Import |
Export |
US Dollar
|
66.20
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64.50 |
UK Pound
|
87.50
|
84.65 |
Euro
|
78.25
|
75.65 |
Japanese
Yen |
58.85 |
56.85 |
As on 13 Aug, 2022 |
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