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Back series GDP data not official estimates: Statistics Ministry
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SME Times News Bureau | 20 Aug, 2018
In the light of a controversy over back series GDP numbers published
this week showing that the Indian economy performed better during
previous UPA rule, the government said on Sunday that these are "not
official estimates" and that the official data would be released later.
Referring
to the data published in the media, the Ministry of Statistics and
Programme Implementation (MoSPI) said in a statement that "these are not
official estimates".
"The estimates in the report are not
official estimates and are meant only to facilitate a decision on the
appropriate approach," it said.
The MoSPI has revised the base
years of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Index of Industrial
Production (IIP) to 2011-12 and for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), or
retail inflation, to 2012.
According to the back series data on
Gross Domestic Product based on the report of the Committee on Real
Sector Statistics, the Indian economy clocked a 10.08 per cent growth
rate in 2006-07 under the UPA regime led by then Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh, the highest since liberalisation of the economy in 1991.
The
National Statistical Commission (NSC) also said in a separate statement
on Sunday that the methodology for back-casting of GDP series is a
"work in progress" and yet to be finalised.
The NSC had
constituted a Committee on Real Sector Statistics under the Chairmanship
of Sudipto Mundle in April 2017 for improvement and modernisation of
the real sector database.
"It is clarified that the methodology
for back-casting of GDP series has not yet been finalised and various
alternative methods are being explored," the Ministry said.
"The
methodology, as also the series using the methodology, will be worked
out using the suggestions made by the Committee on Real Sector
Statistics and other suggestions that emanate during the consultancy
process."
According to the statement, the committee also looked
at the issue of data challenges in bringing out the Back Series of GDP
(Base 2011-12) as several new sources had been used in the current
series, which were not available, or not reliable, in the earlier series
(Base 2004-05).
The MoSPI also said that the committee
approached the data challenges using different approaches. Three
possible approaches were considered for generating the back series.
The
recommendations of the NSC Committee will be examined by MoSPI and
other experts for deciding on the appropriate methodology to be adopted
for generating the back series estimates for each sector.
"The
Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics will be deliberating
on the Back Series estimates before finalising the same for continuity,
consistency and reliability," the MoSPI said.
It said that the
statistical processes involved in producing such estimates are open,
transparent and in line with the best international practices and
standards.
"The processes and estimates are evolved after
detailed deliberations in various technical committees and the
recommendations placed in the public domain. Efforts have also been made
to increase the sample size and use of high frequency data released by
various agencies," the Ministry said.
In a Facebook post,
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, who is currently convalescing, pointed to
the global factors which helped a high rate of growth during the period
in question.
Besides this, the UPA-I government had the benefit of a continuous incremental reforms from 1991 to 2004, he said.
"2003-04
witnessed the boom period for the global economy. The result was that
global growth picked up. Most economies were doing well and all emerging
economies started showing a high growth rate. This period continued
till 2008 when the global crisis started.
"Since demand was
high, exports were growing, and, therefore, for an emerging economy like
India it was a great opportunity. However, when this honeymoon ended,
growth started slipping down and to ensure that growth is maintained,
two significant steps were taken.
"Firstly, fiscal discipline
was compromised and the banking system was advised to go in for reckless
lending, notwithstanding the fact that it would eventually put the
banks at a risk," he added.
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