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Global airline passenger fatalities decline sharply
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IANS | 25 Jan, 2020
Airline passenger fatalities around the globe has declined sharply over
the past decade as new research has revealed that the fatalities rate is
now one death per 7.9 million passenger boardings, compared to one
death per 2.7 million boardings during the period 1998-2007, and one
death per 1.3 million boardings during 1988-1997.
The commercial
airline fatality risk was one death per 750,000 boardings during
1978-1987, and one death per 350,000 boardings during 1968-1977, said
the study published in the journal Transportation Science.
"The
worldwide risk of being killed had been dropping by a factor of two
every decade," said study author Arnold Barnett, Professor at
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Sloan School of Management.
"Not
only has that continued in the last decade, the (latest) improvement is
closer to a factor of three. The pace of improvement has not slackened
at all even as flying has gotten ever safer and further gains become
harder to achieve," Barnett said.
The new research also revealed that there is discernible regional variation in airline safety around the world.
Nations
housing the lowest-risk airlines are the U.S., the members of the
European Union, China, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and
Israel, showed the results.
The aggregate fatality risk among those nations was one death per 33.1 million passenger boardings during 2008-2017.
For
airlines in a second set of countries, which Barnett terms the
"advancing" set with an intermediate risk level, the rate is one death
per 7.4 million boardings during 2008-2017.
This group --
comprising countries that are generally rapidly industrialising and have
recently achieved high overall life expectancy and GDP per capita --
includes many countries in Asia as well as some countries in South
America and the Middle East.
For a third and higher-risk set of
developing countries, including some in Asia, Africa, and Latin America,
the death risk during 2008-2017 was one per 1.2 million passenger
boardings -- an improvement from one death per 400,000 passenger
boardings during 1998-2007.
"The two most conspicuous changes
compared to previous decades were sharp improvements in China and in
Eastern Europe," said Barnett.
Overall, the rate of fatalities has declined far faster than public fears about flying," Barnett said.
"It's
a factor of 10 safer than it was 40 years ago, although I bet anxiety
levels have not gone down that much. I think it's good to have the
facts," he added.
To conduct the current study, Barnett used data
from a number of sources, including the Flight Safety Foundation's
Aviation Safety Network Accident Database.
He mostly used data
from the World Bank, based on information from the International Civil
Aviation Organisation, to measure the number of passengers carried,
which is now roughly 4 billion per year.
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