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India must play pro-active role on Indus Waters Treaty
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SME Times News Bureau | 08 Mar, 2021
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) brokered between India and Pakistan by the
World Bank in 1960 has weathered three wars in 1965, 1971 and 1999 --
as also the September 2016 attack by four heavily armed terrorists that
resulted in the death of 19 soldiers and the four attackers and was "the
deadliest attack on security forces in Kashmir in two decades".
The
IWT will continue to "chug along" and the "best option for India, which
the current government is following after mulling the option of
abrogation, is to optimise/maximise the provisions of the Treaty," Uttam
Kumar Sinha, one of India's leading commentators on trans-boundary
water issues, told IANS in an interview on his new book," Indus Basin
Uninterrupted -- A History of Territory & Politics from Alexander to
Nehru" (Penguin Vintage).
"There is no advantage for India to
abrogate the Treaty. Water will continue to flow irrespective unless
structures are constructed on the rivers that store the water and that
will take several decades," he adds.
"Technically, the IWT has
no exit clause, so there is no question of 'renegotiations'. However,
Article XII (3) and (4) of the Treaty provide for modification of treaty
provisions BUT through a "duly ratified treaty" which will replace the
present one with the condition that cannot be abrogated unilaterally.
"Politically
this is difficult to achieve. Pakistan knows very well that the Treaty
of 1960 is as good as it can get and any �modified' treaty will only
harm its interest. It will continue to make noises (both domestically
and internationally) about India's hegemonic motives to keep the
anti-India feeling alive," Sinha maintains, adding that the Treaty and
its provisions "not only gives Pakistan the water it requires but on
account of being a lower riparian vis-a-vis India, it builds a global
sympathy as a victim of India's hydro-aggression".
At the same time, India needs to take corrective measures, he said.
"On
the eastern rivers much of the waters in non-monsoon period (about 0.58
MAF) flow freely into Pakistan. This has to be arrested and for that
the three projects Ujh (storage of 0.82 MAF) and Shahpurkandi Dam (0.012
MAF) and second Ravi Vyas Link Project have been put into fast track.
"On
the western rivers the 'permissible storage capacity' as per the Treaty
provisions has not been paid serious attention in India. This again has
to be seriously corrected," Sinha writes.
Noting that the
current government "has put many projects on the Chenab river like the
Bursar and Gypsa on fast track," he contends that "many more projects
would be required to fulfil the provision of 2.7 MAF of storage water on
the western rivers".
"But most importantly, India has to build
widespread awareness about Pakistan's strategy to stall or delay
multi-purpose projects among the people of Jammu and Kashmir and harness
the displeasure of the local political leadership about the provisions
of IWT. At the end of the day water is equally about perception," Sinha
explains.
The framers of the Treaty had foreseen that
differences and disputes will emerge, he says, adding that "the beauty
of the Treaty lies in the 'Settlement mechanism' within the Treaty (vide
Article IX and attendant Annexures F and G) in three different ways."
"Resolution
of any differences through (i) mutual consultations in the Permanent
Indus Water Commission established under the Treaty; (ii) through a
Neutral Expert acceptable to both or appointed by the World Bank in case
of disagreement, and (iii) resolution of any 'dispute' by a Court of
Arbitration," Sinha writes, accusing Pakistan of using "these provisions
on numerous occasions to obstruct many projects being planned by India,
well within the treaty provisions".
Beginning with "Ageing of
India's History, the 353-page book, in five parts, with an easy
narration and rich archival material, brings alive a meandering
5,000-year journey of peace, conflict and commerce on the Indus basin,
exploring "Diplomacy and Commerce on the Indus", "Colonisation, Canals
and Contestation", "Partition of Land and Rivers" and finally, "The
Making of the Indus Waters Treaty".
Along the way, from
Alexander's campaign to Mohammad-bin-Qasim crossing the Indus and laying
the foundation of Muslim rule in India; from the foreign invades and
their 'loot and scoot' to the Mughal rulers' perspective on hydrology
and water use; from the British 'great game' on the Indus basin to the
bitter and bloody Partition; and finally, as a historical pause, the
signing of the IWT, this book is a spectrum of spectacular events,
turning points, and of personalities and characters and their actions
that were full of marvel.
As the author notes in the Preface,
"it is a frightening acknowledgement that the Indus basin, with its
richness and impetuosity, can be so all-pervasive, defining history,
ordering territories, attracting invaders and in many senses,
determining the way of life and the politics around it. Much, of course
is known of this vast basin, yet much is unknown . It is time, perhaps,
as we mark sixty years of the Indus Water Treaty, 'to talk of many
things' as the Walrus said to the Carptner in Lewis Carrol's "Through a
Looking Glass'" and this the book does in abundant measure.
After
a brief stint in the print media and doctoral degree from Jawaharlal
Nehru University, he joined the Institute of Defence Studies and
Analyses (now renamed the Manohar Parrikar-IDSA) where he heads the
non-territorial security centre and is the Managing Editor of "Strategic
Analysis" the institute's flagship journal.
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