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'China eyes strategic opportunity in its exercise of power'
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Vishnu Makhijani | 15 Jul, 2021
Its a scholarly work that grew out of the inherent curiosity of Manoj
Kewalramani, one of Indias foremost analysts studying Chinese politics,
foreign policy and approaches to new technologies. Not only does it
examine threadbare the Communist Party of Chinas approaches to
cultivating sources of strength and exercise of power in a post-pandemic
world, but also contains forceful lessons for India that the moral or
values-based propositions being hitherto followed need to be backed by
hard power - economic and military.
"The idea for the book began
to take shape in April last year. I had been following developments
related to the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan very closely, and as the
city reopened after over two months of lockdown, it was evident that
something really historically significant was taking place," Kewalramani
told IANS in an interview of his book, "Smokeless War -- China's Quest
for Geopolitical Dominance" (Bloomsbury).
"Countries around the
world were imposing lockdown restrictions while China had seemingly
contained the spread of COVID-19. It had also started exporting key
health supplies, and a political and narrative slugfest around issues
like the virus' origins, the early failures of the Chinese leadership,
the role of the WHO, China's mask diplomacy, and supply chain
vulnerabilities was taking shape," he added.
The book is an
attempt to document and understand the extraordinary events of 2020 and
their implications for the future of the world order. It examines the
Chinese leadership's political, diplomatic & narrative responses
during the pandemic and addresses key questions about the nature of
China's rise and what it means for the world.
Kewalramani's
assessment is that at the present moment, with the US gradually stepping
back as the world's policeman and shifting focus from the Atlantic and
Europe to the Indio-Pacific region, it doesn't appear that China will
steer toward "greater discretion and judiciousness in terms of its use
of power and home and abroad" but that Cold War 2.0 as envisaged by some
experts, is not a possibility. What then does the 'new normal' have in
store?
"From my point of view, we are at a particular
inflection point in the history of the international order. The
Communist Party believes that the world is going through unprecedented
and volatile changes. Yet, it views China as an indispensable global
power, and has immense confidence in the resilience and ability of the
Chinese system of governance. In contrast, it views the liberal
democratic governance systems as having become stagnant and struggling
to address social, economic and political fissures.
"In
particular, it views the US as a declining power. All of this means that
in the eyes of the Chinese leadership, China still enjoys a window of
strategic opportunity to move along the path of national rejuvenation.
In essence, this means there will be greater willingness to engage in
contestation. And that's what we are likely to see in the near future,
with China being more risk-tolerant in its exercise of power,"
Kewalramani explained.
The challenge for Beijing is that
concerns about its rise and its actions are providing fresh momentum to
counterbalancing movements, he said, adding: "These are evident in the
upgrading of the Quad, the recent NATO and G7 statements along with
discussions about building supply chain resilience, reducing economic
dependence on China, and the formation of circles of trust when it comes
to core technologies."
What does this mean for India? After
all, India and China set out on their new paths almost simultaneously in
the 1950s and India, in fact, held the high moral ground for much of
the decade. Where did India falter and can it ever recover lost ground?
"I
think it's important to understand the role of morality or values in
international relations. First, power is the core currency in
international affairs. In an anarchic world, states seek to expand their
power and capacity, which in turn enhances their security. On the other
hand, moral or values-based propositions are useful to create a shared
set of norms that constrain the use of power and bring order.
"However,
in order for any set of values to become shared across a large
community of states, these need to be backed by hard - economic and
military - power. If this is the case, the norms can acquire greater
acceptance and legitimacy, while the state that's advocating them and
underwriting them, in turn, acquires authority," Kewalramani elaborated.
Looking at the history of China and India's rise within this
context, "it's clear that the leadership in both countries in the 1950s
had very different views when it came to cultivating sources of power.
While the PRC focussed on rapidly developing hard power capabilities,
the Indian leadership's approach to international affairs was based on
peace and diplomacy. To be honest, neither side really succeeded in
these early quests".
"In the Indian context, there was a gradual
shift towards a more realism-based approach that took place from the
early 1960s onward, while the PRC grew more insular during the Cultural
Revolution. The 1970s were decades of turbulence and re-orientation for
both India and China. By the 1980s, both sides were clearly moving
towards a more liberal economic policy. China, of course, began its
reform process a decade before India's economic reforms of 1991, and
these set the stage for phenomenal growth in both countries. It's worth
noting that in terms of the size of their economies, India and China
were around at par at the time.
"However, it is evident that
China has done far better than India since then. While India's record
has been patchy and of stops and starts, China has consistently opened
up to foreign capital, technology and talent. At the same time, it has
focused on policy measures to support local businesses and
entrepreneurs, facilitating exports. It has invested in manufacturing,
infrastructure and connectivity, which has led to certain negative
externalities too, of course. Public spending on education, health and
research and development as a percentage of GDP have consistently
remained well above India's.
"Finally, what we also see is that
there's a concerted effort in China to promote the development of an
innovation ecosystem that has encouraged commercialisation of research
and product development. None of these decisions have been taken without
internal political wrangling and costs. But the Party leadership
persisted with the direction of reform. Importantly, the wealth
generated from this rapid economic growth has also been directed towards
rapidly modernising the military. It is with this capacity that China
is now seeking legitimacy and authority," Kewalramani maintained.
Noting
that today, there is tremendous economic asymmetry between India and
China, he said bridging this gap will require India to begin focussing
on capacity development and avoid the tendency to be insular.
"To
be prosperous, India needs to adopt economic freedom as a principle
guiding policies and pursue deeper connections with the outside world.
Finally, I'd like to say that too often, Indian politics has been about
addressing grievances of the past. If we wish to compete in the 21st
century, our discourse needs to focus much more on the issues of the
future," Kewalramani concluded.
(Vishnu Makhijani can be reached at vishnu.makhijani@ians.in)
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