Bikky Khosla | 15 Dec, 2020
agency Crisil last week revised
India's fiscal 2021 real GDP contraction projection to 7.7% as against a contraction of 9% forecast in September. It cited
faster-than-expected revival in economic activity in the second quarter, which
continues into the festive season, as one of the reasons for the revision. This
projection has come in the grip of RBI’s revision of real GDP growth
projection for the year from -9.5% to -7.5%. Going by these numbers, it seems the
Indian economy is bouncing back fast.
Besides these revised GDP forecasts, take a look at
some recent macroeconomic data sets --
the manufacturing PMI, though fell from 58.9 in October to a three-month low of
56.3 in November, is still much above 50; the Nomura India Business Resumption
Index (NIBRI), a weekly business resumption tracker, hit 92.9 for the week ended
December 13. Similarly, FDI inflow rose 15% during the
April-September period to $30 billion, reflecting investor faith in
India’s economic resilience.
The export sector is also on the path of recovery.
After contracting 12.41% in June, 10.12 percent in July and 12.66%
in August, our exports rose by 5.99 percent to $27.58 billion in September.
Then in October shipments fell to $24.82 billion, and according
to latest figures, the sector shipped merchandise worth $23.43 billion in
November. These figures are not that negative. Several recent ground reports are
also showing continuous improvement in order booking position of the sector.
There is little doubt that a balanced Covid-19
response strategy by the Centre helped this recovery. Besides the well-planned stimulus
packages, the government also unleashed structural reforms across various
sectors, thus further strengthening the recovery process. So, so far so good,
and we hope a consensus will soon be reached between the government and
protesting farmers which may otherwise impinge upon the
ongoing economic recovery. Also, as pointed out by Crisil, fiscal spending is
crucial at this juncture.
I invite your opinions.