Bikky Khosla | 13 Aug, 2019
With trade tension between the two largest economies -- US
and China -- showing no sign of improvement, multinational financial services
firm Morgan Stanley has warned that the global economy is inching toward a
recession. In case of India – it adds – the situation is not that bad and the
economy, though witnessing a crippling slowdown, is not close to a recession.
But complacency can be fatal at this juncture.
It is good to see the government not turning a blind eye to
the current situation. The Finance Ministry has already decided to convene a
series of meeting with key stakeholders -- including some of the industry
sectors whose growth has been affected in recent months -- to discuss the
current economic issues, and as a part of this exercise, the Finance Minister
has recently met bankers, auto sector representatives, industry leaders and key
realty players in separate meetings. Such efforts are welcome.
Meanwhile, according to media reports, the government is
working on a stimulus package for the industry including a slew of financial
measures ranging from tax cuts, subsidies and other incentives. The report adds
that the package would not only aim to reduce the cost for the industry but
would also lay out procedures that would further provide impetus to ease of
doing business. It is also likely to cover the financial markets that may get
relief from the tax on FPIs imposed in this year's Budget. Sounds good.
The Indian economy has declined for three straight quarters.
Currently, both industrial production and core infrastructure sectors have
witnessed a decline. According to latest data, industrial growth fell to a
three-month low of 2 percent in June. Eight core industries growth dropped to a
negligible 0.2 percent in the same month. Several sectors, including
automobiles, are dangerously close to recession. The government must work
urgently to reverse this situation.
I invite your opinions.