Bikky Khosla | 22 May, 2018
the good news. Exports rose 5.17
the month of April this year, compared to the same month last year.
it's good news for the economy. But meanwhile two
major challenges have emerged. The Rupee is tumbling, raising fear
that the currency could weaken up to the
level of 70
per dollar by December-end. Although
seen as good news for exporters,
overall it is likely to have a negative impact on the economy. Also,
oil prices are rising, posing a massive threat to the economy.
to official data released last week, exports during April 2018 were
valued at US
as compared to US $ 24.64 Billion during April 2017, exhibiting a
positive growth of 5.17 percent. It
is good to see such acceleration in exports, but still
it is difficult to overlook the fact that most labour-intensive and
including gems & jewellery, leather, readymade garments and
were into negative territory. Also,
a rising trade deficit, with the crude imports bill swelling, is
to the Rupee, it is a
big concern to
the economy that
the currency has fallen by 6 percent against the US dollar in 2018.
According to some experts, this fall may extend up to 70 per dollar
by December-end. While
this currency downslide may help our exporters it may also lead to
higher inflation and a tighter
monetary policy by the central bank. Additionally, with
India lacking qualitative
or quantitative edge over its competitors, particularly China, it
is likely that only select export sectors like software
and pharmaceutical will
benefit from a weak rupee.
in crude prices poses a bigger challenge. Our
economy was a key beneficiary
of falling crude oil prices between 2013 and 2015. It
pushed our GDP growth and also helped us to narrow the twin
now the situation is reversing fast,
with rising oil prices posing a high risk to the economic growth
Rupee is already under pressure and now inflation,
trade deficit, balance of payments are
to be affected by high crude prices.
Needless to say, this situation requires urgent attention from the
invite your opinions.