IANS Interview | 10 Mar, 2024
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Saturday released its first list
of 195 candidates for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The ruling
party’s list has come at a time when the opposition’s INDIA bloc is
still struggling to arrive at a seat-sharing agreement in several
states. So, it is believed that the BJP is in a position to capitalise
on first-mover advantage in several states, which understandably augurs
well for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s '400 plus Lok Sabha seats dream'
for the BJP-led NDA.
In an interview with IANS, Pradeep Gupta,
Chairman and MD of Axis My India -- country’s renowned Consumer Data
Intelligence Company -- spoke about some key factors that might impact
the poll outcome.
Pradeep Gupta believes that apart from the
southern region, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh are the two major states
where the BJP has chances to improve its tally as compared to the 2019
Lok Sabha elections. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, BJP had won 62, while
NDA had got 64 seats out of total 80 seats in UP. So, there is obviously
an “elbow room” for BJP to improve in UP. Similarly, BJP had won 18 out
of 42 Lok Sabha seats in Bengal in the last LS polls. It means the
party has tremendous scope to improve its strength in Bengal as well.
When
asked about whether the Sandeshkhali incident would enhance BJP’s poll
prospects in Bengal, Gupta said that it is a regional issue in the
state. “Regional issues affect the entire society and state. Such issues
could also make a decisive impact on the elections.” He recalled the
Lakhimpur Kheri incident, saying that a cabinet minister’s son was
facing some charges there. But it did not harm BJP in the polls that
followed the incident. The reason is that such issues impact a limited
part of the state. The decisive effect would be felt when the issue
assumes a larger national proportion. To another query, the Axis My
India boss said that the Sandeshkhali happening might impact the
elections in Bengal seats. “But I am not in a position to say how much
impact it will create,” he added.
Talking about southern states,
Gupta said that BJP has been making massive efforts to lift its
electoral fortunes in Kerala for quite some time now. It is static on
double digit vote percentage for a long time there. However, the votes
could not bring it seats in assembly and Lok Sabha elections earlier in
Kerala. This time, some possibility would be there for the BJP in this
southern state. It will move ahead from ‘zero’ at least.
Talking
about Karnataka, Pradeep Gupta, a renowned psephologist, pointed out
that two major changes happened in Karnataka in a period of five years.
One, Congress registered an impressive victory in Karnataka in the last
assembly elections. The outcome boosted the morale of the Congress
party. Two, Congress contested the last Lok Sabha election in alliance
with JD(S) when BJP was in power in Karnataka. Both parties could then
get one seat each. This time, JD(S) is with the BJP-led NDA. The state
is obviously ruled by Congress this time. But the alliance is different
now. With this in view, Karnataka would be an interesting state to see
during the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls.