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Eco Survey red flags: Higher CAD, rupee depreciation, entrenched inflation
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IANS | 31 Jan, 2023
On the external front, risks to current account balance stem from
multiple sources, noted the Economic Survey 2022-23 that was placed in
the Parliament on Tuesday.
While commodity prices have
retreated from record highs, they are still above pre-conflict levels.
Strong domestic demand amid high commodity prices will raise India's
total import bill and contribute to unfavourable developments in the
current account balance.
These may be exacerbated by plateauing export growth on account of slackening global demand.
Should the current account deficit (CAD) widen further, the currency may come under depreciation pressure, the Survey said.
The
widening of the CAD may also continue as global commodity prices remain
elevated and the growth momentum of the Indian economy remains strong.
The loss of export stimulus is further possible as slowing world growth
and trade shrinks the global market size in the second half of the
current year.
Another risk to the outlook originates from the
ongoing monetary tightening exercise. While the pace of rate hikes has
slowed, major central banks have reaffirmed their hawkish stance on
inflation.
Entrenched inflation may prolong the tightening cycle,
and therefore, borrowing costs may stay 'higher for longer', the Survey
said.
In such a scenario, global economy may be characterised by
low growth in FY24. However, the scenario of subdued global growth
presents two silver linings -- oil prices will stay low, and India's CAD
will be better than currently projected.
The overall external
situation will remain manageable, and against this backdrop, the survey
projects a baseline GDP growth of 6.5 per cent in real terms in FY24.
The projection is broadly comparable to the estimates provided by
multilateral agencies such as the World Bank, the IMF, the ADB and
domestically by the RBI.
The actual outcome for real GDP growth
will probably lie in the range of 6 per cent to 6.8 per cent, depending
on the trajectory of economic and political developments globally, the
Survey said.
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Customs Exchange Rates |
Currency |
Import |
Export |
US Dollar
|
66.20
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64.50 |
UK Pound
|
87.50
|
84.65 |
Euro
|
78.25
|
75.65 |
Japanese
Yen |
58.85 |
56.85 |
As on 13 Aug, 2022 |
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