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Crisil cuts India's growth forecast over Covid-19
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SME Times News Bureau | 07 Jun, 2021
With the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic crippling
economic activities across the country, Crisil Research has lowered
India's growth forecast in line with the other agencies, stating that
the second wave has brought the Indian economy back to square one.
Accordingly, it has revised its projection by 150 basis points to 9.5 per cent for the 2021-22 financial year.
"Back
to square one. India's GDP bounced back to the pre-pandemic level by
the fourth quarter of the last fiscal, after a sharp contraction in the
first quarter. However, the second wave has likely erased those gains in
the first quarter of this fiscal," it said.
Crisil said that the
second Covid wave has thrown cold water over the Indian economy that
was beginning to warm up after witnessing the most severe contraction
since Independence.
Noting that the daily Covid cases seem to
have peaked for now, though they remain above the peak of the first
wave, the report said that the risks of another wave and tardy
vaccination mean that the states would be wary of fully unlocking
anytime soon.
"That is unlike what we saw last fiscal, when a
largely uniform and calibrated reopening spurred quite a sharp recovery.
Consequently, Crisil is lowering its gross domestic product (GDP)
growth forecast for India to 9.5 per cent for the current fiscal,
compared to 11 per cent expected earlier," it said.
Crisil said
that the downward revision is premised on the clearly evident hit to the
two engines of growth -- private consumption and investment -- by the
second wave of the pandemic.
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