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143-186 mn non-farm workers inactive during lockdown: Report
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SME Times News Bureau | 08 May, 2020
Only 49 to 57 percent of Indias economic activity has operated during
the lockdown so far, with 143 million to 186 million inactive non-farm
workers, according to a research by McKinsey and Company.
In the
past six weeks, India's economy has functioned at 49 to 57 per cent of
its full activity level, by our estimates, McKinsey said in a report.
That
economic cost, though unavoidable in the early stages of a lockdown,
might not be sustainable in the longer term. It is becoming increasingly
clear that COVID-19 will not disappear immediately; the economy will
need to be managed alongside persistent infection risks, possibly for a
prolonged period. After reopening, some countries have needed to resume
lockdowns in response to rising infection rates, and India may be no
exception, the report said.
India's intertwined supply chains
need a sharply targeted lockdown approach India's manufacturing, labor,
and distribution chains are intertwined across sectors and geographies,
particularly in the wake of the Goods and Services Tax, McKinsey said.
Six
states (including Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu,
which account for 30 percent of construction activity) rely heavily on
migrant construction workers from other states. Bottlenecks in the
return of migrants would affect building activity in such states.
The
report estimates that half of all drivers engaged in freight movement
across the country come from just 14 districts. Restrictions on the
movement of people from these districts could affect the ramping up of
national logistics activity.
It is pointed out that economic
activity is concentrated in red-zone districts that are critical centers
of production and consumption The Indian Ministry of Health and Family
Welfare (MoHFW) has classified districts into red, orange, and green
zones, based on multiple criteria.
The 130 districts classified
as red-zone districts are some of the most urbanized and industrialized
parts of the country. They account for some 41 percent of national
economic activity, 38 percent of industrial output, 40 percent of
nonfarm employment, and more than half of India's consuming-class
households.
Within this set of red-zone districts, 27 districts
that have relatively higher infection rates and are more urbanized
account for roughly one-third of the economic activity. Finding methods
of keeping these red-zone districts operational and safe would be
critical in keeping economic activity sustainable.
On the
potential reopening implications for economic activity and workers, the
report says that based on district-level data on employment for more
than 700 districts across 19 sectors, we estimate that only 49 to 57 per
cent of India's economic activity has operated during the lockdown so
far, with 143 million to 186 million inactive non-farm workers.
Economic
activity on the ground may rise going forward, although reaching full
potential would require considerable effort to boost local confidence in
large swathes of the country.
On looking ahead and planning for
contingencies, McKinsey said, "The future remains uncertain, and India
will need to be ready for all sorts of eventualities. It would be wise
at all levels of government to develop contingency plans based on
scenarios of potential COVID-19 impacts".
India's economy will
need to function alongside COVID-19 for a prolonged period. A well
implemented, granular, dynamic, and locally driven lockdown- and
restart-management capability while managing health risks is required.
There is much at stake for Indiaein both lives and livelihoodsein
getting this right, McKinsey said.
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