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Rupee may strengthen in short-term
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SME Times News Bureau | 25 Jul, 2020
Rising foreign reserves along with healthy Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI) inflows are expected to strengthen the Indian rupee in the
immediate-to-short run.
Accordingly, analysts opined that the
currency will move into a range between 74 and 75 as healthy forex
reserves and consistent inflows strengthens it further.
"Falling
US dollar index globally is a good trend for emerging markets'
currencies and thus rupee should trade with a stronger bias," Sajal
Gupta, Head, Forex and Rates, Edelweiss Securities, told IANS.
"Market
is ignoring the tensions between the US and China and is anticipating
fast progress on the development of a vaccines. More FDI inflows are
also helping the rupee sentiments."
Presently, India's foreign exchange reserves increased by $1.275 billion, during the week ended on July 17.
The reserves grew to $517.637 billion from $516.362 billion reported for the week ended on July 10.
India's
forex reserves comprise foreign currency assets (FCAs), gold reserves,
special drawing rights (SDRs) and the RBI's position with the
International Monetary Fund (IMF).
According to Anindya Banerjee,
DVP, Currency and Rates, Kotak Securities: "Dollar-Rupee is caught
between Central bank intervention and speculative selling."
"This may keep the pair boxed within a range of 74.45 and 75 levels for the time being."
The RBI is known to enter the markets via intermediaries to either sell or buy US dollars to keep the rupee in a stable orbit.
Last Friday, the rupee marginally appreciated to 74.83 against a greenback.
"The
RBI's dollar buying at regular intervals has been reflected in the FX
Reserves, which are at a record high of $516.36 billion as on July 10.
Also, this week Asian currencies remained positive because dollar
continued to plunge on fears of a full-blown financial crisis, and
rupee followed the suit," said Rahul Gupta, Head of Research, Currency,
Emkay Global Fi nancial Services.
"Going ahead, if the trade
tiff escalates then fears of US ending th e Phase-One deal will arise
and USDINR will finally break the psychological l evel of 75 and trade
higher. But we don't expect a sharp rally as traders ar e focusing on
the coronavirus vaccine developments and are pretty convinced o ver
getting additional stimulus packages."
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Customs Exchange Rates |
Currency |
Import |
Export |
US Dollar
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66.20
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64.50 |
UK Pound
|
87.50
|
84.65 |
Euro
|
78.25
|
75.65 |
Japanese
Yen |
58.85 |
56.85 |
As on 13 Aug, 2022 |
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