SME Times News Bureau | 30 Dec, 2019
As we are set to usher in the new year,
there are nascent signs that
the economy is on a better footing than what it
was in the year gone by, said CII President Vikram Kirloskar.
With the proactive measures taken by the
government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), industry
believes that the slowdown will be overcome, and a gradual recovery will
soon be in place, he added.
“The results are fast percolating through and becoming increasingly
evident on the ground. Nascent signs of recovery are noted
in the form of improved PMIs of manufacturing & services, jump in
passenger air traffic, sharp moderation in
the decline in sales of passenger carsamong others”, he said.
Though we may continue to see a subdued GDP print in the
third quarter as well, but the quarters thereafter are likely
to see a rebound, Kirloskar added.
With the initial difficulties associated with the structurally positive
measures of GST and the IBC getting gradually ironed out, the industry is
hopeful that this will result in the accrual of substantial benefits for the
economy.
The year 2019 will be remembered as one where
the systemic clean-up of the financial sector picked up pace, which
might have resulted in short-term pain for the economy.
However, this tidying up will have
extensive positive ramifications for the economy in the short to medium
term.
“On balance, all these factors will have a significant bearing on
growth in the next fiscal. Add to this the easing of global
trade tensions along with lagged impact of monetary easing coupled
with improved transmission, and we are in for a gradual recovery getting
firmly entrenched by the next fiscal”, Kirloskar commented.
CII has actively partnered with the government by providing constructive
recommendations from the industry to kick-start growth in the year gone
by. We will continue to engage with the relevant
stakeholders in order to make sure that our economic growth moves to
a higher trajectory.
A critical issue that industry has highlighted in the
past year is that of pending payments from government departments
and CPSEs. All outstanding payments need to be released at the
earliest to vendors in the private sector.
This would boost liquidity in the hands of the private
sector which would reduce the need to borrow
for meeting working capital requirements. CII has suggested the
creation of an e-portal where invoices can be uploaded, and delayed
payments can be tracked.
In addition, arbitration awards and cases under tax
litigation need to be settled quickly and government
receivables should not be treated as NPAs.
CII feels that with the sharp moderation in growth, the time has come to adopt
an expansionary fiscal policy.
“Just like our medium-term inflation target range, we can
have a Flexible Fiscal Policy target which will set a central target for
the fiscal deficit with a range of around 0.5% to 0.75%. The additional
availability of funds may be spent on key infrastructure projects which can be
implemented quickly. This is likely to have a significant multiplier effect on
the economy”, said Uday Kotak, President-Designate, CII.
In the subsequent years, there can be a glide
path to converge to the FRBM trajectory over a 2-3-year timeframe, he
added.