SME Times News Bureau | 21 Dec, 2019
Global ratings
agency Fitch Ratings on Friday lowered India's economic growth forecast to 4.6
per cent in 2019-20 due to domestic factors, in particular a squeeze in credit
availability from non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), and deterioration in
business and consumer confidence.
According to Fitch, growth is expected to be around 4.6 per cent this fiscal
against an earlier estimate of over 5 per cent.
"Our outlook on India's GDP growth is still solid against that of our
peers, even though growth has decelerated significantly over the past few
quarters, mainly due to domestic factors, in particular a squeeze in credit
availability from NBFCs and deterioration in business and consumer
confidence," the Fitch report said.
"Fitch expects growth to slow to 4.6 per cent in the financial year ending
March 2020 (FY20), from 6.8 per cent in FY19, which is still higher than the
'BBB' median of 2.8 per cent. We expect growth to gradually recover to 5.6 per
cent in FY21 and 6.5 per cent in FY22 with support from easing monetary and
fiscal policy and structural measures that may also support growth over the
medium term," it added.
Further, Fitch Ratings kept India's credit worthiness indicated by its
Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) unchanged at 'BBB-',
stating that India's growth outlook was stable.
The agency said that India's rating balances on a still strong medium-term
growth outlook, compared to 'BBB' category of peers, and relative external
resilience stemming from solid foreign-reserve buffers against high public
debt, a weak financial sector and some lagging structural factors, including
governance indicators and GDP per capita.
"The affirmation of the ratings incorporates our expectation of moderate
fiscal slippage relative to the Central government's fiscal deficit target of
3.3 per cent of GDP in FY20," the report said.
"The government is again facing a trade-off between stimulating the
economy and reducing the deficit in the medium term. Some fiscal slippage has
occurred in recent years against government targets, even during periods of
sustained stronger growth," it added.
The FY20 deficit target has already been exceeded by end-October due to weak
revenue intake, and a deceleration of nominal quarterly growth suggests further
revenue pressure for the rest of the financial year.
"The government has indicated that its corporate tax rate cut could lower
revenue by 0.7 per cent of GDP in FY20 and hopes to finance spending by more
aggressive asset divestments, including Air India and Bharat Petroleum
Corporation Limited," the ratings agency said.
"We believe there is a risk of more significant fiscal loosening in the
event of continued weak GDP growth, for example, in the context of lingering
problems in the NBFC sector," it said.