Country's Q4, 2015-16 GDP data due on Tuesday

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SME Times News Bureau | 30 May, 2016
India's national income figures for fourth quarter, as well as for 2015-16, are due for release on Tuesday against the backdrop of the great expectations about the GDP numbers aroused by the recent highlighting of the NDA government's achievments in its two years completed earlier this week.

US rating agency Fitch in its latest Global Economic outlook has said that India's GDP will grow 7.5 percent in the last fiscal ended March and improve to 7.7 percent in the current fiscal and further to 7.9 percent in the financial year ending March 2018.

India Ratings of the Fitch Group said last month it was lowering its growth forecast for the country to 7.7 percent from 7.9 percent, with industrial recovery not yet on the horizon and despite forecasts of good rains in the coming monsoon season.

The finance ministry's Economic Survey for 2015-16 tabled in parliament in February has pegged growth for the last fiscal in the 7-7.5 percent range.

Reviewing major developments during the fiscal, the survey said that according to the Central Statistics Office, the growth rate of GDP at constant market prices is projected to rise to 7.6 percent in 2015-16 from 7.2 percent in 2014-15.

However, the GDP growth for the third quarter slowed to a four-quarter low at 7.3 percent as against 7.7 percent it had grown to in the second quarter.

To meet the revised figure of 7.6 percent growth for 2015-16, the GDP has to increase by 7.8 percent in the last quarter.

Citigroup projects India to grow at the highest pace in six quarters buoyed by an uptrend in economic activity and favorable base effect. The global financial services major said earlier this month that India's GDP growth for Q4 of 2015-16 is likely to improve to 7.8 percent.

The UN's mid-2016 report on the World Economic Situation and Prospects released earlier this month expects India to grow by 7.3 percent this year and 7.5 percent next year, the strongest GDP growth rate for a large economy, despite the drought affecting 330 million people in 10 states and headwinds blowing in from the rest of the world.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also said this month that India remains the fastest-growing large economy, with GDP expected to increase by 7.5 percent in 2016 and 2017.

The Reserve Bank has kept its growth projections for Indian economy unchanged at 7.4 percent for the last fiscal, a tad higher than 7.3 percent forecast by the World Bank.

The 6th Bimonthly Monetary Policy Statement 2015-16, announced by Governor Raghuram Rajan in February has pegged growth to quicken to 7.6 percent in 2016-17.

The growth of the Indian economy will pick up slightly to near 7.5 percent in 2016 and 2017, but private investment remains weak, Moody's Investors Service said this month.

The American agency said in its Global Macro Outlook 2016-17 that India's growth will pick up slightly, climbing to 7.5 percent in 2016 and 2017, from 7.3 percent in 2015.

Official data last week showed India's merchandise exports in April were valued at $20.57 billion - down 6.74 percent in dollar terms against $22.05 billion in the like month of last year, signalling a decline for the 17th straight month.

Further, investment spending fell in the last quarter of 2015 as did industrial production, while capital utilisation rates remain low, the report added.

Data last week also showed that growth of India's manufacturing, which has the maximum weight in the overall index of industrial production (IIP), actually fell by 1.2 percent in March after rising during the month before.