Global economy forecast to grow by 2.3 pc in 2015: Fitch

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SME Times News Bureau | 07 Oct, 2015
The global economy will grow by just 2.3 percent in 2015, the weakest since the global financial crisis in 2009, dragged down by a recession in Brazil and Russia and a structural slowdown in China and many emerging markets, said a Fitch Ratings forecast.

"We forecast a pickup to 2.7 percent in 2016 and 2017 as growth recovers somewhat in emerging markets. Growth in major advanced economies (MAEs) is forecast to strengthen to 2 percent in 2016, the fastest since 2011," said the latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) released by Fitch.

Fitch's global growth forecast has weakened marginally since June's GEO, due entirely to emerging markets revisions.

The report stated India takes over as the fastest growing BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nation this year with 7.5 percent GDP growth, accelerating to 8 percent in 2016 driven by structural reforms and higher investment.

The current deep recession in Russia and Brazil (-4 percent and -3 percent in 2015 respectively) will be followed by only a weak recovery starting in 2016 in Russia (0.5 percent) and only in 2017 in Brazil (1.2 percent).

The emerging markets are becoming an increasing source of global growth risks as the collapse in commodity prices and political shocks exacerbate a secular slowdown, the report said.

"Our baseline forecast for China is a gradual slowdown to 6.3 percent in 2016 and 5.5 percent in 2017, from 6.8 percent in 2015. Although investment is slowing sharply, growth continues to be supported by robust consumption and policy easing. However, there are downside risks from the real estate sector, capital flows, and policy settings," the report added.