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IMF pegs India's 2014 growth at 6.4 percent
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Arun Kumar | 24 Jan, 2013
Picking
up from the current downslide, India's growth is projected to rise from 4.5
percent in 2012 to 5.9 percent in 2013 and reach 6.4 percent in 2014, according
to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Even as it lowered India's growth rate by a minuscule 0.1 percentage point for
2013 from its October projection, IMF in an update to its World Economic
Outlook (WEO) released Wednesday left the 2014 figure unchanged.
As the constraints on economic activity start to ease this year, global growth
will strengthen gradually to 3.5 percent this year, from 3.2 percent in 2012 -
a downward revision of just 0.1 percentage point compared with the October 2012
WEO.
But the recovery is slow, and the report stressed that policies must address
downside risks to bolster growth.
Growth in emerging market and developing economies is on track to build to 5.5
percent in 2013, it said. Nevertheless, growth is not projected to rebound to
the high rates recorded in 2010-11.
Supportive policies have underpinned much of the recent acceleration in
activity in many economies, the IMF said.
But weakness in advanced economies will weigh on external demand, as well as on
the terms of trade of commodity exporters, given the assumption of lower
commodity prices in 2013 in the January Update, it said.
Moreover, "the space for further policy easing has diminished, while
supply bottlenecks and policy uncertainty have hampered growth in some
economies", it said citing the example of Brazil and India.
The report observed that economic conditions improved slightly in the third
quarter of 2012, driven by performance in emerging market economies and the US.
The IMF forecast a growth of 2 percent in the US this year, broadly unchanged
from the October 2012 WEO.
A supportive financial market environment and the turnaround in the housing
market will support consumption growth, it said.
For the US, the IMF stressed that "the priority is to avoid excessive
fiscal consolidation in the short term, promptly raise the debt ceiling, and
agree on a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plan, focused on
entitlement and tax reform".
For emerging market and developing economies, the report underscored the need
to rebuild policy room for manoeuvre.
It noted that "the appropriate pace of rebuilding must balance external
downside risks against risks of rising domestic imbalances".
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Customs Exchange Rates |
Currency |
Import |
Export |
US Dollar
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66.20
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64.50 |
UK Pound
|
87.50
|
84.65 |
Euro
|
78.25
|
75.65 |
Japanese
Yen |
58.85 |
56.85 |
As on 13 Aug, 2022 |
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