Market's bull run may stay, 'too strong' derivatives data a concern

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SME Times News Bureau | 28 Nov, 2020
The bull run in the equity market is likely to continue in days ahead, but the only concern at this point is the "too strong" derivatives data, which may lead to a rapid sell-off in case of a course reversal, according to a report by Motilal Oswal Retail Research.

The report said that at current juncture, market is in bulls grip and dips are getting bought into quickly. Nifty's derivatives data is also positive and it indicates continuation in ongoing momentum.

It however said FIIs index futures data signifies they are overbought in Indian market and any unwinding of longs or fresh shorting may lead to a correction in the market.

Thus, some cautious approach should be adopted at these levels it said.

"As far as levels are concern, index is moving in uncharted territory and 13,500 would a hurdle as per options data. On the flipside, major support exists at 12,700 then 12,350 zones. The only concern at current juncture is too strong derivatives data and in case of any reversal, the sell-off can be fast," said the report.

It was a historic month for the market as Nifty posted highest ever series on series gains (in absolute term). Bulls were aggressive from the start of the November series and kept the ball in their court throughout the series, said the report.

Index marched above 13,000 mark for the first time in history and managed to conclude the November expiry a tad below the same. It gained by 1,316 points or 11.28 per cent over its October series close. Nifty started the November series with some long positions and bulls didn't miss any chance to enjoy the festive session.

Traders cherished the outcome of US elections and Diwali festival as Indian markets reached to the record highs along with rally in global markets.

Buying interest was seen across the board as all the sectoral indices ended the series in green. Among them, banking, financials and metal indices were major gainers.

FIIs have made highest monthly buying in November. The report noted that except marginal selling on first trading session of November expiry, they were significant buyers on all other sessions.

They have pumped in around Rs 56,733 crore in November series. FIIs also continued their buying streak in index futures for major part of the series and as a result, their 'Long Short Ratio' has increased from 44.54 per cent to 76.63 per cent on series-on-series basis.

"This has helped the index to cross the 13,000 mark," it said.

On the other hand, DIIs have been selling non-stop and cumulatively sold equities to the tune of Rs 42,719 crore in November series.